Ryan McManus's Barbarian Blog

A faster horse.

Ryan McManus — Wed, 03 Dec 2008 11:06:09 -0500

All this talk of an Auto Industry bailout and the need for hybrid car has made me realize (again) how few people understand the process by which a product is made. Because, if they did, these arguments that the Big 3 should only be given the money if they “start making fuel efficient cars” would be …

When you go to buy a new car, that car in the showroom began, in a literal sense, 2-3 years earlier, probably longer. The process begins when management sits down and decides on their product line, which cars need replacements, which cars need refreshes, which lines can be merged, streamlined, etc. Business decisions.

From there, the design of the car begins. If it’s a simple refresh; an engine replacement, a new face, well that timeline is shorter, but no one is suggesting the Big 3’s ills would be cured by a cuter grill on an Escalade. For a redesign, a new framework has to be designed, a new drivetrain, new engines, new technologies, new body, new interior, mew manufacturing, et cetera et cetera. It is a deeply complex and time consuming process, and not an easy one to get right. And even all of that isn’t enough to couse correct the Big 3.

What a solution in Detroit requires is a complete rethinking of what products consumers want, both now and a decade from now, because even if Ford or GM decided that they were going to start building Pruis-killers today, they don’t have the technology or the R&D to put into the design process. (It is telling that the hybrid tech that Ford uses is licensed from Toyota – that is because, as Wired put it, it is damn hard to develop an algorithm that manages a hybrid power train)

And this is why I think, ultimately, that Detroit may be doomed (or in for a long long decade). The reason companies like Toyota and Honda are so far ahead of the Americans isn’t because they looked at what consumers wanted and built it; they looked ahead, decades ahead, and decided what they really needed to start spending their R&D dollars on was hybrid technology. The Prius did not just appear – it was a gamble, an educated guess into the future (pretty educated, given the constant decline of oil), and for many years Toyota sold it at a loss just to establish themselves as the technology leader on this new type of car (which they have done, unbelievably so. Pruis has become shorthand for fuel efficient tech). And I guarantee that Toyota and companies like it are already deeply invested in the next technology.

Therein lies the difference: The Big 3 are looking at this problem from a reactionary standpoint (customers aren’t buying our cars because we aren’t building cars customers want) whereas the industry leaders are attacking the market with a proactive plan* (customers will eventually need cars that do X in a decade, so let’s begin to invest in how to make those).

So, does that mean the Big 3 should be let to fail? I don’t know. I’m sure as shit glad it’s not my call. If it were, I’d probably say the U.S. government and its shareholders (that’s you and me, honey) should invest its dollars in the company most likely to succeed (Ford), that company should merge with one that has some interest in hybrid tech (GM) and the third company should succumb to it’s own undoing (Chrysler – hey, they HAD their chance, 2 if you count the Daimler buyout.)

But, like I said, I’m glad it’s not my call. I don’t even own a car.

*There is probably someone who can make a sound argument on how Japanese culture has influenced its industries’ business approach, but it’s not me.

Do Passwords Scale?

Ryan McManus — Wed, 26 Nov 2008 13:27:40 -0500

An awesome post today from Ben Hyde from Google on passwords as “the worst usability disaster, ever.”

The answer to this is deeply sad. It is because we have done a fantastic job on usability of passwords. They’re so usable that anyone will type their password anywhere they see the word “password” with a box next to it. Phishing is utterly trivial because we have trained the world to expect to be phished every time they see a new website.

link

Playoff Baseball and Luck.

Ryan McManus — Fri, 21 Nov 2008 15:42:44 -0500

The owner of the Oakland A’s, Lew Wolff, recently suggested that the first round of playoffs in professional baseball, the League Division Series, should be shortened to a single game. He said it would be, in his words, exciting.

I find this interesting for a few reasons. First, the source of the suggestion: As was noted in the book Moneyball, the problem with the Playoffs is that it undoes the thing that makes a low-budget, strategically winning team such as Oakland successful: it introduces luck. The timeline of the playoffs is excruciatingly short when compared to the marathon regular season, so luck (a random vector that only time can average out) becomes a far more potent influencer. This could be the reason that, despite having winning seasons, the A’s particular management style never finds them in the World Series.

So this makes the suggestion by Wolff to shorten it to one game all the more curious. I could understand the impetus, but this only exacerbates the problem: shortening the gameplay from 5 games to 1 increases the possibility of luck as influencer dramatically (I would say it increases it 5x, but I’ve never been good at percentages). I suppose they hope for the best on the crapshoot: put it all on black.

If Major League Baseball really wanted to shorten the postseason while limiting luck as a deciding factor in the outcome, the structure should be something like this: LDS: 7 games. LCS: 5 games, WS: 3 games. That would ensure that luck as a factor was minimized during the early rounds, when there are a greater number of teams involved, ergo a greater number of games played (the math works out to a possible 28 games in the LDS, 10 games in the LCS, and 3 games in the WS) to spread the luck over. That way, by the time we get to the World Series, luck is only strongly influencing the outcome between 2 teams, so it’s a greater chance that a “deserving” team will be crowned champion.

Now, will Selig agree to a best-of-three WS? Severely doubtful. The World Series has always been a best of 7 situation, and tradition aside, limiting it to at worst 2, at best 3 games wouldn’t exactly make for a windfall in advertising dollars. So I humbly suggest the 3-5-7 game structure. Sure, it still increases the odds of an “undeserving” team making it to the World Series, but each successive round would prove out the stronger team’s particular strengths.

Just a thought.

RED brings modularity to imaging.

Ryan McManus — Thu, 13 Nov 2008 14:48:03 -0500

Here’s something interesting: RED, the camera company started by Oakley founder Jim Jannard, has launched the Scarlet and Epic, a modular, Chinese-Menu style approach to building one’s own custom imaging solution.

Basically, you choose the “brain” (an imaging core ranging from 4.9MP to 261MP!), and then outfit it to your personal needs, whether they be photo or video. Best of all, it offers both Nikon AND Canon mounts in addition to their proprietary mount.

If you have the scratch and can look past the Halo-esque aesthetics, this may represent the first evolutionary leap in digital camera technology: a design that no longer conforms to the vestiges of a film system. It also embraces the fact that sensors will keep getting better, so why not just upgrade your brain once in a while?

(Full brochure)
via Photography Bay.

Mustaches for Victory Pays Off!

Ryan McManus — Mon, 03 Nov 2008 08:28:56 -0500

A few months ago, I was at lunch with some of the boys from the office, and I was racking my brain trying to figure out how I could raise money for my candidate for president, Barack Obama. Someone (I want to say it was Keith, but it may have been Toby. We’ll just say it was Toby Keith.) suggested I shave off my much-maligned mustache. I agreed, for $2000. Mustaches for Victory was born.

Fast forward to yesterday. After shockingly reaching that goal (I set it high so I wouldn’t HAVE to shave it off), I made good on my promise and went down to see Michael at the New York Shaving Co. to have my pushbroom removed.

The whole thing was documented in glorious 720p HD, so check out the ready-for-HGTV clip:

Mustaches for Victory, the Payoff! from Ryan Tomorrow on Vimeo.